While the price of gold is down just over 10% in the past 12 months, Newmont Mining (NEM – Analyst Report) shares are off nearly 40%. A metals investor might take solace in the fact that the entire basket of miners, as represented by the MarketVectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX – ETF report), is off over 45% in that time.
But the fact remains that the miners appear to be running ahead of the continued bear market in the metal. And you need only look at the downward Earnings Estimate Revisions (EER) in a name like Newmont to see the impact that analysts are projecting for these falling knives.
In just the last 90 days, full-year 2015 EPS estimates for NEM have dropped from $1.25 to $1.07, representing earnings “growth” of -2%. But it gets worse looking into next year.
Full-year 2016 earnings projections have been slashed from $1.34 to $0.81, representing -24% on the bottom line.
Here are the Zacks Detailed EPS tables so you can see all the analyst moves of the past 90 days…
A Few Contrarian Words on Gold and Inflation
I’ve been bearish on gold over three years now. And I don’t see the trend changing any time soon.
If trillions in QE didn’t create inflation, higher interest rates certainly won’t help now.
The dollar isn’t going to zero and gold is not the best hedge anyway. If you want to hedge against inflation or falling currencies, the best asset on the planet for that is a diverse basket of equities.
And in the big correction of 2015, big buy opportunities to beat inflation, or deflation, are right around the corner.
Kevin Cook is a Senior Stock Strategist for Zacks where he runs the Follow The Money portfolio.