Advanced Auto Parts: Zacks’ Bear of the Day Play

Advanced Auto Parts (AAPAnalyst Report) engages in the automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries, and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles, and light and heavy duty trucks. The Virginia based company is now a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) after a recent EPS miss.

The company has a market cap of $10.7 Billion and has a Forward PE of 16. The stock sports a Zacks Style Scores of “C” in Growth, Value and Momentum.  The company has 3-5 year growth rate of 11.55% and dividend yield of 0.16%.

Earnings

Q1 earnings came in at $2.51 verse the $2.61 expected. The company cut fiscal year same store sales to -5% verses a -3% expected. Advanced Auto also announced it will no longer target adjusting operating income of 12% for 2016. In addition, the company’s CFO will be leaving the company.

The stock reacted negatively to the news selling off almost 10% to February lows. However, investors and perhaps short sellers bought the stock back up to unchanged level. After making a 2016 high at $165 in early April, the stock now sits in a vulnerable spot under the $150 level. The earnings momentum is bringing sellers into the stock and another break of the $130 level could lead to long term investors dumping the stock.

Estimates

Over the last 60 days, the company has seen estimates fall for both fiscal year 2016 and 2017. For the current year we have seen a 5.7% revision lower from $10.01 to $9.43. For next year, estimates have fallen 5.2%, from $8.93 to $8.46.

These numbers are also reflected in the next couple quarters as well. If the company misses when it next reports in June the stock will be in danger of new 2016 lows.

A Better option

If investors want exposure to the auto part sector that are better going with US Auto Parts Network (PRTSSnapshot Report) . The company  is a leading online provider of automotive aftermarket parts, including body parts, engine parts, performance parts and aZacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

PRTS reported an EPS and revenue beat on May 9th and sports Zacks Style Scores of “A” in both Momentum and Growth and “B” in Value. The stock is up over 13% for the year and estimates for fiscal year 2016 have doubled over the last month.  The company reports Q2 earnings on August 9th.

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